Week 13 is upon us, which means in many formats you’re staring down the barrel of your fantasy playoffs. Whether you’re working toward a first round bye, fighting for the final playoff spot or you’re in ‘evaluation mode’ our Week 13 fantasy football start and sit piece is here to help. If you find yourself in the latter camp, there are a few players highlighted throughout who have particular utility in Daily Fantasy Sports contests.
On that note, our staff have been spending their time at FantasyDraft.com, which is still in beta but has a ton of quality freerolls available and is now open for deposit. Join us there.
Week 13 NFL Quarterback Starts
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Coming off a solid performance against the Broncos, Ryan Tannehill has a much easier matchup in Week 13 (Photo: Jim Rassol/The Miami Sun Sentinel).
Ryan Tannehill at New York Jets
The numbers and the w/l column don’t necessarily show it, but Tannehill is coming off one of his best performances. He kept the Dolphins in the game and kept the point rolling up on the board. This week, the task gets much easier against the Jets secondary and with Geno Smith on the opposite side of the field. Expect a few short fields for the Dolphins O and for Tannehill’s efficiency to continue. He’s averaging just 6.6 YPA on the season and as such, its hard to project gaudy numbers as a passer, but a solid game with multiple scores and a few yards chipped in on the ground is well within reach. Completing more than 70% of his passes in each of his last four games, Tannehill has been the 3rd highest scoring fantasy QB over the last month despite having the deep ball taken from his arsenal. Against a defense allowing a 65% completion rate on the season, he should keep up the efficient work and post another QB1 line. Don’t forget, Tannehill has added 45+ rushing yards in four of his last seven games.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. New Orleans
Returning from the bye against a New Orleans Saints D that has given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season, large Benjamin absolutely has to be on your radar as a top flight option this week. Sure, he threw for just two touchdowns in the two games heading into the bye but he played those games away from home. His last two at Heinz Field? 12 scores. That’s the way it has gone for Roethlisberger on the season, the home road splits are way out of whack: he has just six TDs and has thrown five interceptions on the road vs. an 18:1 TD:INT ratio in the friendly confines. Look for him to get back on track in Week 13 against a reeling Saints’ defense.
Week 13 NFL Quarterback Sits
Matt Ryan vs. Arizona
Ryan threw it well enough in Atlanta’s loss to Cleveland last week (273, 2TDs, 1 pick) but the matchup is much more challenging this week. Those 273 yards represent a high watermark over the last six weeks from Ryan, and they’ll be hard to improve upon against a Cardinals D that has really shored up their pass defense over the last few weeks. The Cardinals are giving up under 200 yards per game in November and have yielded just five passing touchdowns in their last four games. Look for a ceiling of 250 yards and a score out of Ryan this week, and steer clear as a result.
Week 13 NFL Running Back Starts
Tre Mason vs. Oakland
Since his official ascension to lead back status in St. Louis Mason has had to run against some of the toughest run defenses in the NFL (San Francisco, Arizona, Denver and San Diego). Despite that, he’s run well posting an average of 8.5 fantasy points per game during that span good for 25th at his position. This week, he draws the Raiders who’ve given up the 8th most rushing yards per game and the 4th most fantasy points to RBs. Off a victory in ‘their Super Bowl’ the Raiders take to the road and are a logical candidate to come out flat. If so, expect Mason to take full advantage of his RB1 workload and deliver value for anyone who starts him – the Raiders have been beat up by opposing backs this season. Ryan Mathews (7.5), Ben Tate (9.4) and Stevan Ridley (6.1) are the only three lead backs who have scored fewer than 15 points against the Raiders this season.
Mason will cost you just $12,200 (12.2% of cap) at FantasyDraft.com. Its early days on that side, but join us and get in during the beta stage.
Alfred Morris at Indianapolis
There has been a lot of bad press coming out of Washington in recent weeks, but none of it has revolved around Morris. Alf has four touchdowns in his last four games, and has produced a minimum of 85 total yards in those outings. Meanwhile, Indy has given up a dozen rushing scores and nearly 1700 total yards to opposing RBs. Assume a big workload for Morris in Colt McCoy‘s return to the lineup, and trust in solid production despite what we’re all expecting to be a down game from Washington.
Week 13 NFL Running Back Sits
Fred Jackson vs. Cleveland
Don’t let a solid 10+ fantasy point outing from Fjax fool you, he is far from recovered from his groin injury. Jackson ran tentatively on Monday night against the Bills and now faces a short turnaround in a matchup against the Browns. Cleveland is down a few men on their line and can be run upon, but look for Boobie Dixon who played 13 fewer snaps than Jackson on Monday Night but handled two extra carries. He was far more productive against the Jets as well. Expect that trend to continue, at Jackson’s expense in Week 13.
Steven Jackson vs. Arizona
Like the fellow veteran with whom he shares a surname, Steven Jackson found the endzone and salvaged his fantasy day a week ago but the scoring will be harder to come by in Week 13. He’ll draw the Cardinals who have given up just three 10+ point rushers on the year and with his low snap ratio (Jackson plays on roughly 50% of Atlanta’s offensive plays in any given week) Jackson is an unlikely candidate to join them. The Cards have given up just five rushing scores and 84.5 yards per game on the year, making a 12-15 touch back a poor option this week.
Week 13 NFL Wide Receiver Starts
Keenan Allen at Baltimore
It’s easy to proclaim a talented wideout coming off his best game of year as a must-start this week, but it goes beyond his impressive (although fumbly) Week 12 performance. Allen has consistently led the Chargers in targets this year and he’ll now face the team that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs. The Ravens have given up a lot of yards on the season and are yielding 208 YPG to WRs over the last month, and 1.67 TDs per contest. The player most likely to take advantage? The one getting the balls thrown his way. Allen has 29 more targets than any other Chargers’ WR this season and should benefit from that volume against the Raiders.
DeSean Jackson at Indianapolis
In Colt McCoy‘s lone start this season, Jackson produced a six catch, 136 yard receiving line, good for his second highest total on the year. Don’t mistake this for a McCoy endorsement though, simply as good logic. Jackson is coming off two down games but has gone over 100 yards in four of his last seven outings and is the clear number one receiver for Washington. The Colts have defended the position reasonably well this year, including an outing against the Jags that yielded a 5.2 point effort from Marqise Lee and little more their last time out but Washington should be expected to spend much of the second half in catch up mode and that will leave McCoy taking shots to his best deep threat. Look for this week to be produce another tick in the 100 yard game column.
Charles Johnson vs. Carolina
If you’re looking for a competitively priced daily game option, Johnson could be it. He’ll cost you $6,800 (6.8% of cap) on Fantasy Draft and $4,000 on Draft Kings. Strictly a volume play, Johnson has good down field speed and has drawn 18 targets from Teddy Bridgewater over his last two games, with one six catch 80 yard outing to his credit and another with a TD. He’ll get his shots against a poor secondary in Carolina this week.
Week 13 NFL Wide Receiver Sits
Randall Cobb vs. New England
Cobb isn’t a ‘sit’ in the strictest of senses, I have him ranked as a solid WR2 and most analysts like him more by ECR, but owners should expect lower production than normal and if you find yourself in a position of choosing between Cobb and an upside rookie (Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, say) then you do have a start/sit question on your hands. If the trend holds, New England will commit Darrelle Revis to Jordy Nelson for much of the game with the stronger, more physical Brandon Browner tasked with Cobb. If so, expect Cobb to have some trouble getting off the line and Aaron Rodgers to have to look elsewhere. The Patriots are giving up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs and have done a nice job against wideouts of a similar style. In great likelihood, Cobb will give you a useable stat line this week – after all, he’s scored fewer than 10 points just three times – but not one that is up to his usual standard.
Mike Wallace at New York Jets
I’ve elaborated on my thoughts for FantasyPros, but will share the crux again here. Yes, the Jets can be beat deep and yes, I’m expecting a good game from Ryan Tannehill, I’m just not expecting that to be driven by the deep ball or by Wallace specifically. He hasn’t been used as a deep threat in recent weeks, so it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to take the cover off a Jets D that has given up 11 passes of more than 40 yards this year. The short-intermediate passing game has been driven through Jarvis Landry in recent weeks and I’m expecting that trend to continue. I still have Wallace ranked as a mid-range WR3, but, if you have higher upside options on your roster then those are the guys to play. He hasn’t topped 60 yards receiving in almost two months.
Sammy Watkins vs. Cleveland
In a typical year, Watkins would be viewed as having an outstanding rookie season but in the 2014 reality he isn’t living up to his draft stock as the first receiver taken off the board. In fact, until a few weeks ago he was trending well among the 2014 rookie class regardless. Then, he suffered a groin injury and his production has waned significantly. In the three games since his groin tweak (originally deemed minor, but clearly lingering), Watkins has been targeted 22 times but has made just 10 catches for 94 yards. With a date against the Browns who are giving up just 165 YPG to the position on the season expect Buffalo’s passing game to again flow through Robert Woods and Chris Hogan, leaving Watkins with another low output performance.
Week 13 NFL Tight End Starts
Travis Kelce vs. Denver
You don’t need anyone else telling you that the Chiefs haven’t seen a WR score a TD this year (you like that? My subtle way of doing it anyway…), but I will tell you that their production is bound to come from other parties in a game where they’re going to need to throw to win. Kelce has already been productive against the Broncos, posting four catches for 81 yards in his first professional game and he has rounded into form well since then. Giving up 240.5 YPG and 22 scores through the air, Denver is an exploitable matchup for QB Alex Smith. Trust him to look to Kelce often – the rookie TE has had a maximum of five targets per game over the last month, but that trend could reverse this week.
Coby Fleener vs. Washington
Dwayne Allen has been ruled out for Week 13, leaving Coby Fleener as the top TE in Indianapolis for another week. He made just two catches last week in his much hyped start after a strong showing against the Patriots, but don’t let that poor outing deter you. Washington is a middling TE matchup, but they have given up seven scores to the position on the year and Fleener should see his fair share of chances. Owners looking for an injury or performance fill in could do well with Fleener for Week 13.
Week 13 NFL Tight End Sits
Antonio Gates at Baltimore
Maybe I’m reading too much into Gates’ recent struggles, but I’m viewing them as a sign that the 34-year-old TE is slowing down as the season wears on. He has seen just 10 targets over his last three games, with a maximum of 32 yards receiving during that span. The Ravens have given up just four scores to TEs this year, and with two of those belonging to Jimmy Graham the odds of finding paydirt are pretty slim for Gates – without the yards to go around in recent weeks (and with the anticipation that Allen and the wideouts do the bulk of the damage), I’m not expecting much. As an added note, keep an eye on Ladarius Green‘s snap count and target load this week. He’s had more than two targets just twice this year, but his usage picked up at this time last year, coinciding with Gates’ downturn.
Week 13 NFL DSTs to Stream
Most of the top options, and even the top streaming opponent options are owned this week – an untimely occurrence and something that probably makes our Mike Omelan, who claims that everyone streams so you can’t do it effectively anymore, very happy.
With that said, there are commonly unowned options that could help:
New York Giants (39% owned) at Jacksonville
Ok, so the defense facing the top offense to stream against remains available. They are so because the Giants have been an awful fantasy defense this year, scoring the 3rd fewest points in the league. The one thing they’ve been good at? Forcing picks. Their 13 interceptions are just three off the league lead, and as you well know Blake Bortles has an appetite for throwing them. The rookie has been intercepted in every game, and hasn’t thrown a TD in his last two outings. The Giants should force a few mistakes this week, and score accordingly.
Minnesota (23% owned) vs. Carolina
Carolina trots out yet another makeshift offensive line with a right tackle that the folks at PFT have gone to painstaking lengths to let you know they’ve never heard of. That line has really struggled this season, and particularly recently leaving Cam Newton open to a barrage of sacks. They’ve given up 15 sacks in their last three games, good enough for scoring on their own, and the pressure has led to low output and plenty of turnovers from QB Cam Newton. The Vikings D is strong enough to keep the pressure up this week.
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