This is it (in most places, anyway). Your fantasy football playoffs are set to wrap up, and whether you’re battling for third place, are further down the consolation ladder, or your aiming to be a champion each decision takes on added, final, relevance this week. With that in mind, our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start and Sit assesses each position for players whose context may improve (our inhibit) their typical output.
Week 16 NFL Quarterback Starts
Matt Ryan takes on the Saints this week, against whom he averages 297.7 YPG in his career (Photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images North America).
Matt Ryan at New Orleans
As I articulated to an advice-seeker earlier this week something clicked in Atlanta a few weeks ago, and the offensive line has done a considerably better job of blocking for Matt Ryan. He has been sacked 10 times in his last seven games after being sacked 9 times in the two prior to that streak – in fact, Pro Football Focus now ranks the team’s pass blocking among the top-10 on the season. With that added protection, the QB has now thrown for 300 yards in three of four games (and 273 in other) and has multiple TDs in each of those four games. He’s playing some consistent football and with the season on the line in New Orleans I like him to perform well based on matchup, whether or not Julio Jones plays (the Saints give up the 4th most points to QBs over the season and 2nd most over the last month).
Robert Griffin III vs. Philadelphia
Griffin didn’t produce a victory and the team didn’t post a lot of points, but they did move the ball much better in his appearance last week en route to a solid stat line from the sophomore QB. The Eagles’ 29 passing touchdowns are the 3rd most in the league, and they’ve allowed multiple TDs to every QB they’ve faced since their Week 7 bye (except for Tony Romo, dealing with his bad back on a short week, who would later torch them for three). The last time these two teams met Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles put a combined 71 points on the board. The QBs have changed but the leaky defenses haven’t.
Week 16 NFL Quarterback Sits
Cam Newton vs. Cleveland
This is purely an assessment of the unpredictability of Newton’s health and his reaction to returning to game action. All signs point to him playing after a solid week of practice and the word is that he looks mobile and fresh. With that said, the guy has two broken bones in his back after a major car accident and there is no way of knowing how he’ll look in game action if he takes a few hits behind a poor offensive line. The upside remains with Newton, who is coming off his best fantasy output of the season, but if you have a better floor option on your roster or the waiver wire I’d avoid the temptation of starting Newton in my championship game.
Philip Rivers at San Francisco
Rivers is also dealing with injuries of unknown severity and has seen a noticeable decline in his production in recent weeks. Here’s what we know on Rivers, who missed a Wednesday practice before returning the rest of the week:
Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who missed practice Wednesday, is battling a back injury that is bigger than people realize, per league source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 18, 2014
That injury may explain why Rivers has a 7:8 TD:INT ratio and just one multiple touchdown game since Week 8. Against a 9ers team with a 23:17 TD:INT ratio and just over 3000 yards (the third fewest on the season) and there are far better options available.
Week 16 NFL Running Back Starts
Tre Mason vs. New York Giants
Mason has just 99 yards on 33 attempts since going bonkers on the Raiders three weeks ago, but finds himself with a similarly lucrative matchup in Week 16. In fact, after the Raiders game I warned against expecting too much in tough rushing matchups against Washington and Arizona with a specific eye toward this game. The Giants have given up 2197 total yards to backs this year (156.93 per game) and Mason should command a significant proportion of St. Louis’ rushing work this week. The Giants have done a nice job against Washington, Tennessee and Jacksonville in recent weeks though none of those teams (outside of Washington) have particularly noteworthy backs. Prior to that, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore and DeMarco Murray ran for a minimum of 95 yards against them. Look for Mason to produce a similar number on the ground and find his way into the endzone.
Fred Jackson at Oakland
After taking a game to get his feet wet after his return from injury, Jackson has played between 74 and 76 percent of snaps for Buffalo in each of the last three weeks, notching 68 touches in those three games. Those touches stand to be valuable against a Raiders team that has allowed seven touchdowns to backs over the last month and 19 on the season (along with the 3rd highest FPPG to the position). C.J. Spiller, if he sees the field at all, is a threat to the workloads of Bryce Brown and Anthony Dixon and not that of Jackson.
Steven Jackson at New Orleans
I’ve been picking on the Saints in recent weeks and the strategy has paid enormous dividends. Sure, they held Matt Forte in check reasonably well last week as part of Chicago’s overall meltdown but even then the back had 99 total yards and averaged nearly 5.0 YPC. Jonathan Stewart, Le’Veon Bell and Justin Forsett produced an average of 30.33 points over the previous three games in standard leagues. While Jackson is averaging fewer touches/game (14.6 on the year) he’ll still have a clear path to RB2 production against a defense that simply doesn’t produce much resistance to opposing ball carriers.
Week 16 NFL Running Back Sits
Jeremy Hill vs. Denver
Hill responded to his announcement as the starter with a solid outing last week, netting 25 carries. Still, he really just had 5/8s of the workload between he and Giovani Bernard and he’ll now face a Denver defense that has faced just 248 combined RB carries on the season. That’s a total average of under 18 carries per game for a team, and with Hill sharing three of every eight balls with Bernard a week ago, he’d be in line for something in the 12-16 touch range moreso than the 20-24 opportunity side of the ledger. With that in mind, my expectations are tempered considerably. Hill is a usable RB2 but you may have better options on your roster.
Shane Vereen at New York Jets
I know Vereen picked up a short yardage carry last week, but he did that on just seven touches and hasn’t had more than that many since Week 12 – the game in which LeGarrette Blount arrived. He’ll draw a Jets D that has allowed the 4th fewest receiving yards to RBs on the season, taking away his biggest contribution area, and is impossible to support with limited volume.
Week 16 NFL Wide Receiver Starts
DeSean Jackson vs. Philadelphia
Jackson disappointed any owners who used him last week after exciting them with his game time activation. He was targeted seven times, but produced just three catches and 15 yards. With no further damage to his shin though, he’s another week healthier heading into a matchup with his former team after being called out by his head coach this week. The motivation will be there, and so is the matchup. Philadelphia’s secondary couldn’t keep up with Dez Bryant who consistently beat them over the top last week en route to three touchdowns, of a league-high 20 allowed by Philadelphia. In Week 3 (while the QBs were different) Jackson lit up the Eagles for five catches, 118 yards and a score despite a shoulder injury.
Charles Johnson at Miami
Johnson fared well in a tough matchup against the Lions last week (7/5/72) and was (tied for) Teddy Bridgewater‘s top target for the fifth consecutive week. The Dolphins have defended the pass well this season, but have been dealing with significant injuries in the secondary of late, including a torn ACL suffered by safety Louis Delmas two weeks ago, and are giving up the 4th most FPPG to WRs over the last month. Johnson’s target load gives him a high floor with solid upside.
Week 16 NFL Wide Receiver Sits
Marquess Wilson vs. Detroit
After a much-hyped week, Wilson found the endzone on Monday Night Football and may have done enough to win you your last week’s matchup. Still, he’s produced just five catches and 35 receiving yards on 10 targets over the last two weeks and will now play with Jimmy Clausen who simply is not an upgrade over Jay Cutler despite what the team is trying to make us believe (while obviously just shelving Cutler with hopes of dealing him). Against a Lions D that has given up just 11 TDs to receivers this year as part of the 7th fewest FPPG to the position I have little interest in Wilson.
Eric Decker vs. New England
Decker had a solid-not-spectacular outing against the Patriots the last time out (7/4/65) but can’t be relied upon for even a repeat performance of that meager line. With 189 yards over the last two weeks he has been Geno Smith‘s favorite target, but New England has done a great job of taking those away this season. Expect Smith to be overwhelmed when throwing, in a game that the Jets will try to dictate on the ground, leaving little excitement from a WR3/4 with no upside. I’d rather roll the dice on a Donte Moncrief type than make use of Decker this week.
Week 16 NFL Tight End Starts
Rob Gronkowski at New York Jets
This isn’t news to you of course. You were starting Gronkowski long before you read it here, but this is a note to the daily gamers: Gronkowski is worth the cash this week. The Jets have given up a dozen TDs to the position this year and Tom Brady‘s favorite target is a near lock to find the endzone.
Antonio Gates at San Francisco
With Keenan Allen felled by injury, Gates led the team in targets last week and has seen 23 of them over the last three weeks. Allen’s targets will be redistributed, giving Gates a solid chance for 8-10 against a 49ers team that is right around the league average in terms of points allowed to the position. Trust Rivers to rely heavily on his veteran in a must-win game with an undermanned offense.
Week 16 NFL Tight End Sits
Larry Donnell at St. Louis
Donnell continues to draw steady volume, but hasn’t topped 60 yards receiving since mid-October and hasn’t scored since the middle of last month. He’s demonstrated a tendency for drops during that span as well, part of the reason he has been unable to put up fantasy lines despite solid target numbers. The Rams boast a solid linebacking corps, and have given up just 599 yards and two scores to TEs this year, rendering Donnell a must-avoid play.
Week 16 NFL DSTs to Stream
Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland (46% owned)
10/18, 80, 2 INTs. Manziel’s debut line is reason enough to get behind the Carolina D. While I expect Johnny to improve (slightly) on last week’s outing, he’s still a rookie QB that looked over matched by an NFL defense a week ago and he wasn’t close enough to suggest that he’ll look anything but the same this week. The Panthers have allowed 19 points or fewer in three of four.
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (36% owned)
Fantasy Football’s 3rd highest scoring defense over the last month the Giants have excelled simply by taking advantage of soft matchups. They’ll have that again vs. Shaun Hill and the gang in St. Louis. Hill has actually protected the ball reasonably well since his return as starter, though he owns three interceptions and eight sacks over the last month so it isn’t as if the Rams are impossible to score on as a defense. Meanwhile, New York’s 24 sacks easily lead the league over that same span. They’ll be a back end DST1, but, represent a useful play for owners scrambling to find help at this stage.
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