Throughout the month of January and now into February, we’ve been rolling out a thorough review on touch, target and workload data from all 32 NFL teams in an effort to paint a complete picture of the 2014 fantasy football season and turn our attention to what things like (in the early part of the offseason) for 2015. Much will change, but understanding the relative workload distribution can go a long way to making projections for next year.
[View the full set of articles here]
2014 NFL Season Review: Washington
To say that the season in Washington played out in an undesirable well for coach Jay Gruden in his debut and QB Robert Griffin III after the dismissal of Mike Shanahan and a full offseason of work is an understatement. Griffin still found himself benched with a new man calling the shots, and Gruden’s offense certainly didn’t live up to the billing. From a fantasy perspective, the latter is more damning. After all, Washington is an offense loaded with talent. Depending on how you viewed Griffin’s chances of a bounceback, you drafted a fantasy starter at his position at each roster spot with both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon warranting solid WR2 consideration and none of them paid an overwhelming return on their draft day price.
DeSean Jackson had a pair of big games against his former team but was often hit and miss this year (Photo: Clem Murray/The Philadelphia Inquirer).
Lets start with those receivers. Like his coach, it was DeSean Jackson‘s first season in Washington as well, and he actually panned out OK. Sure, his overall numbers were down after a stellar 2013 season but he was the most consistently engaged target on the team and as such the biggest fantasy producer. Impressively, Jackson went over 1000 yards (1,169, in fact) on just 56 receptions and 87 targets. Those are dismal target numbers for a lead receiver but with a whopping 20.9 (the most of any receiver with 50 grabs) his production held up well. Jackson also found paydirt six times this year. Those numbers were down from an 85-1385-9 career year in 2013, but, you expected that. What was most notable is that while his catch rate was down, too, (68-64.4% of his targets) it was still very much in the respectable range for a guy drawing so many deep targets from inconsistent QBs. 600 of his yards came on 12 receptions on passes thrown more than 20, all among the league leaders in that category. The low overall target numbers led to inconsistency from Jackson (he had three or fewer catches seven times and topped five in a game just twice) which won’t help fantasy owners whatsoever, but, in an offense that didn’t offer you much you certainly can’t complain about his production.
Expect Jackson to continue to play a deep threat role, but also to see a relatively low number of looks compared to other #1 wideouts and treat him as solid, but high variance, WR2 next year as a result. You were treating his teammate Pierre Garcon as a WR2 this year heading into drafts as well, but his projection was anything but high variance. Sure, the scheme was changing but Garcon just finished 2013 alongside Antonio Brown as the only receivers to catch five or more balls in each game. All told, Garcon finished with a dozen more targets than Jackson and an equal number of additional receptions, but his 752 yards and three scores left his production lacking. Further, they were buoyed by double digit targets and receptions in two of his first three games. From there, he saw just 71 targets and 47 receptions the rest of the way, going from a player who had those five catches in every game to a player who was targeted fewer than five times in seven games. Assuming he returns to Washington, I wouldn’t expect much to change. Garcon was not a significant contributor in the Gruden offense in a year where there was a dearth of receiving talent behind him on the depth chart and as such we shouldn’t expect a significant rebound. Treat him as a WR3/4 next year. Things would have played out differently for Garcon were it not for the free agent addition of Jackson, and the same can be said for Andre Roberts. Roberts was signed to be the #2 man on the depth chart, but after Jackson’s contract he was relegated to a supporting role in which he caught 52.9% (36) of his 68 targets for 453 yards with two scores. With numbers like that, it seems unlikely that the team views him as ready to take that role in 2015 and thus, while he’ll be back in the mix as well, it seems to assure that Garcon will return despite his big cap charge next year. No other receiver saw more than 14 looks.
To round out the rest of the pass catchers, as noted above Jordan Reed was being hyped as a solid TE1 coming into the season but again saw his year cut short due to injury. He didn’t look like he had his 2013 form this year either, catching an impressive 76.9% of his targets but producing just 9.3 yards per reception and failing to find the endzone on 50 receptions. He missed another five games this season and while his upside remains intriguing, he’ll be tough to draft next year given the drop off in production and his 12 career missed games. Niles Paul filled in as a reasonable spot start with Reed out of the lineup, catching 39 of his 51 targets for 507 yards. Intriguingly, Paul finally got a chance to get in the mix this season and while his blocking numbers don’t grade out so well, his work as a receiver should net him a look as he enters the free agent market. Take note of his landing spot, but I wouldn’t expect TE1 justification.
Lastly, the run game. Like Jackson in many respects, you can’t complain about Alfred Morris‘ output in his first season under Gruden but his overall numbers represent a regression. Morris ran for 1,078 yards on 265 carries (4.1 a piece) and scored eight times. He was (slightly) more engaged as a receiver as well, drawing 26 targets and making 17 receptions for 155. Still, as long as Roy Helu is in the backfield, its hard to justify giving him any more of the passing game work. Helu caught all but two of his 44 targets and produced an impressive 447 yards through the air, pitching in a 40-216 line as a runner as well. The four year pro now has his walking papers, and is intending to test the market in search of a larger role. With a career 4.3 YPC number and three 30 catch seasons to his name you can count me among those interested in his landing spot. Owners should note, though, that even if he leaves Silas Redd was seeing work in passing roles when Helu was dinged this season and the USC product should be back, with help, in the backfield next season. A comparable 280 touch workload seems right for Morris under Gruden.
In sum, there was some solid play on the offense this season but players didn’t realize a whole lot of upside in year one under Gruden. That may improve as all parties become more familiar with the offense, and it will improve if they see consistent QB play but none of those are given at this stage in the season. Right now, you know what you’re getting here and it isn’t all bad. If the offense takes strides in 2015, there may even be some value worth unearthing.
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