A number of interesting situations presented themselves this week: Tre Mason is the man yet again in St. Louis but how long will at last? Is Tom Brady LaFallin’ in love with Brandon LaFell? What about Welker? We look at that and more with another long list of team’s on bye heading into Week 10 in our Touches and Targets Week 9 review.
Remember: we’re using ProFootballFocus’ ‘thrown at’ data which takes a more reasonable assessment of balls thrown in a receiver’s direction, so, you may notice some slight discrepancy from box scores.
Touches and Targets Week 9: New Orleans Saints
Mark Ingram is getting lots of work, and finding the endzone in 2014 (Photo: Grant Halverson/Getty Images).
It took more carries than it did last time (in fact, Ingram’s 30 rushes this week are a career high) but Mark Ingram has topped 100 yards in back to back weeks for New Orleans, while finding the endzone twice. Those 30 opportunities came with both Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas out of the lineup, and at least one of them should join Ingram in the backfield next time out, but I would expect him to continue to lead the backfield rotation the rest of the way for the Saints, which is great news for his owners who have seen him top 16 fantasy points in each of the games where he has had 14 or more touches. Behind him, Travaris Cadet had just two carries (and three receptions on three targets) despite Ingram injuring his shoulder and leaving the field briefly, and the career high workload. That suggests that the team doesn’t view him as a runner whatsoever, and indicates that as the team gets Pierre Thomas, a solid PPR target himself, back in the lineup Cadet’s role will diminish if not disappear.
The team continued to play revolving door at receiver, spreading the targets around significantly. After a week in which he did a little bit of everything, Brandin Cooks was targeted just three times. So was Marques Colston with both catching each ball thrown their way. Kenny Stills, meanwhile, saw eight looks – his highest total of the season. I wouldn’t take that as an indicator of future use though. The Saints will simply rotate their looks more often than not. Jimmy Graham, mind you, is a lock for weekly opportunity and went 7/7 this week including a converted red zone opportunity. He’s back, healthy, and heating up.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Carolina Panthers
A week after he saw 16 productive carries, Jonathan Stewart’s workload was halved with the return of DeAngelo Williams. The two split 16 carries evenly, with Stewart playing 34 snaps to Williams’ (who started) 23. As we pointed out when reviewing Stewart’s solid Week 8, the two kill each other’s fantasy value when they share the field.
Kelvin Benjamin left six points on the field for the Panthers and his virtual owners, dropping a well thrown red zone target. Otherwise, strong defense and an erratic Cam Newton limited Benjamin to just two receptions on 10 targets for 18 yards. He’s had duds before, and you’re going to have to take the good with the bad with the rookie receiver… but, 10 looks in defeat is a lot more palatable 1.8 point effort than it is with just one target… the consistent work means that Benjamin, generally speaking, is a strong floor play. After seeing 59 targets through his first seven games (an average of more than 8 per contest), Greg Olsen has seen just seven looks in his last two outings. Nevertheless, he remains a focal point of Carolina’s offense and Olsen owners should not panic (though, you could try trading for him after two down weeks if they are) – he remains in the top-3 of TEs in terms of overall targets this season and that workload should keep him as one of the better options outside of the top tier.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Charles Sims a surprise inactive and Doug Martin ruled out with an ankle injury, the backfield belonged to Bobby Rainey… who actually acquitted himself quite well. Mike James had four carries in relief, but with Rainey playing 88% of Tampa’s offensive snaps it was really his show. He was on his way to a huge day, too, but the Bucs let him run just four times in the second half as part of 19 carries overall. All told, Rainey tallied 121 total yards on 20 touches. Things get murky moving forward, with Martin likely to return and Sims’ presumed activation but Rainey may have done enough in Week 9 to warrant leading the rotation for the time being. Make no mistake though, Sims will find work as the season progresses with Tampa in full blown evaluation mode.
Speaking of young guys taking over, Mike Evans is doing just that. Vincent Jackson handled a healthy 12 targets and made six receptions, many of the degree of difficulty, but Evans was thoroughly productive and did the scoring as well. He finished with an 11/7/124/2 line against Cleveland, and has three TDs over his last three games with 22 targets to during that span. Again, Jackson is still seeing plenty of looks, but both receivers are beginning to look like WR2s than a one and a three. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has also stepped ahead of Brandon Myers for playing time and was on the field for virtually every snap this week, but, he drew just two targets.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Arizona Cardinals
If you’re paying attention to the backup RB situation in Arizona, Marion Grice played nine snaps and notched five carries but the day belonged to the starter. Ellington notched 25 touches and paced the Cardinals offense with 134 total yards and a score. That gives him four straight weeks with 25+ touches, but, it doesn’t appear to be slowing him down.
In the pass game, Carson Palmer produced enough yards to yield decent fantasy numbers but he distributed them among too many parties. Larry Fitzgerald and John Carlson each had six targets, while Michael Floyd and John Brown each had five. The low number of targets in recent weeks is not helping Michael Floyd investors, but to me the most significant issue is Brown’s quiet day. We discussed last week how it is hard to produce regularly in an offense where you are the third or fourth option and that remains the case for Brown whose big outings are going to be hard to predict as the 4th most targeted pass catcher and with just 54% of the snaps to work with as he had in Week 9.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Dallas Cowboys
Was DeMarco Murray used enough against Arizona? Probably not. But, from a fantasy perspective it is awfully hard to complain about a 23 touch outing and in general we should be impressed with his production against a tough Arizona run defense. His string of 100 yard games is over, but, a 90 total yard outing is a pretty outstanding floor performance, particularly given that it came against eight and nine man boxes (yes, that’s a thing…). He was shut down late with Dallas trailing significantly. Behind him, all the work went to Lance Dunbar (three carries, two receptions) with Joseph Randle playing just one snap and gaining two yards on a carry. If you’re handcuffing Murray and wanted to know how the team would react to Randle’s continued role as a distraction… there is your answer.
Essentially, we’ll want to throw out all of the Brandon Weeden data when assessing relative roles, but, it should be noted that Jason Witten was involved in the offense again this week with seven targets and six receptions, giving him 12 and 11 respectively over the last two weeks. He could re-emerge as a decent back end TE1 if that continues but I’m still not sold on the volume continuing on a regular basis. Elsewhere, Dez Bryant had nine targets and Terrance Williams had two. Romo is mercifully slated to return this week.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Philadelphia Eagles
LeSean McCoy had his best game of the season for Philadelphia, carrying 23 times for 117 yards and adding two receptions for six. It should not be viewed as a coincidence that it came in a game where the whole band was back together on the offensive line. If a buy low opportunity exists on McCoy (and it probably doesn’t) now might be the time to take advantage of that. It might not be a coincidence that he ran better in a game with Mark Sanchez at QB either… I’ll tell you just from the optics of it, the delayed handoffs and read option plays looked a lot more convincing with Sanchez under Center than with Foles. Darren Sproles was said to be fully healthy this week, but played just 19 snaps while Chris Polk was on the field for 14. Polk carried the ball eight times for 50 yards (and scored), converting a key 4th and 1 along the way. Sproles was active as a receiver (4/4/46) and had seven touches, but, any upside he has could prove to be limited if Polk sees regular time.
Jeremy Maclin might be the fastest guy on the field in any game he plays. Certainly, he looked so on Sunday. He finished 6/6 for 158 yards including two 50+ yard receptions (one of which he took to the house, the other he would have if Sanchez had thrown it just a yard or two ahead of him). The six targets are actually the second lowest total on the season for him, but, they still matched Riley Cooper for the team lead (Cooper converted just two chances). Elsewhere, Zach Ertz had just two targets while Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff matched each other with three. Matthews is still clearly the preferred option though, seeing the field for 62.8% of the plays vs. 20.9% for his fellow rookie. In all cases, Mark Sanchez doesn’t seem to hurt the fantasy numbers any. Philly still managed to run 86 plays on offense in Week 9 so there should be plenty of volume to go around.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Washington
Alfred Morris has had back to back solid fantasy games, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise that his most effective game since his 14-91 opening week game with Robert Griffin III back under Center. Say what you want about Griffin as a QB, but the threat of him as a runner does wonders for the run game. All told, Morris tallied 19 carries for 92 yards, with two catches for 17. Roy Helu picked up four catches on five targets for 46 yards and added three totes, yielding a productive PPR game.
Generally speaking Washington spread the ball around thoroughly this week, though DeSean Jackson did lead the team with six targets ahead of a trio at five (Helu, Andre Roberts and Pierre Garcon). He did continue the troubling trend of producing poor numbers with Pierre Garcon who caught just three of his five targets for 15 yards. Garcon is too good of a talent to release, but, he’s too poor a producer to play right now. He saw a lot of looks from Griffin in Week 1, so, wait and see how the two work together moving forward. Jordan Reed was targeted just once. Meanwhile, Jackson’s 6/4/120/TD day is the fourth time in five games in which he has topped 100 receiving yards, with 26 targets coming during that stretch. He is the clear cut #1 option in Washington.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Minnesota Vikings
I’m thankful that all the talk around Minnesota focuses on the potential for Adrian Peterson’s reinstatement this week, as otherwise we’d have to spend a lot of time talking about another RB: Matt Asiata. Asiata had a huge fantasy day, of course, but I remain thoroughly unimpressed. He carried the ball 10 times for 26 yards, while managing to plow in his three scores. Ugly. Still, it has to be noted that his 14 touches were only three behind Jerick McKinnon (14 carries, three receptions) and his work as a receiver boosted his efficiency numbers. After seeing a big gap in playing time in recent weeks, Asiata actually topped the rookie with 38 snaps to 37 (of 75 total for the team, with the time on field being split evenly). Asiata is a worthy add, though, only if you’re thinking of him as a 10 touch volume play… he won’t produce like this every week.
Fantasy owners and Vikings fans spent September and the early part of October collectively calling for more work for Cordarrelle Patterson. Norv Turner obliged, but, the results still aren’t impressive. Patterson had seven targets this week, but he and Teddy Bridgewater simply were not on the same page, completing just one pass. All of the targets came in the first half, as it seems that the team gave up on a connection that wasn’t working as the game progressed. Patterson had a six catch, 86 yard outing last week, and appeared to lose a long touchdown in the sun early on in Week 9, but he has still gone four of his last five games under 20 yards receiving despite averaging six targets per game during that span. If a market exists for Patterson in redraft leagues, I’m content to move on. Elsewhere, Greg Jennings had a solid six receptions for 76 yards on his team-high 10 targets while Jarius Wright was more or less written out of the gameplan (3/2/29). Chad Ford found the endzone with a 6/5/66 outing but Kyle Rudolph is planning for a post-bye return.
Touches and Targets Week 9: St. Louis Rams
The Rams made the logical move at RB for the second time in three weeks, but that pesky game sandwiched in the middle still troubles me. Tre Mason drew the start, played exactly 2/3rds of the snaps and ran reasonably well (19-65, one reception for a loss of eight) while Benny Cunningham did the passing down stuff (4-10, 3/3/38) and Zac Stacy was held out yet again. That all makes sense, but, the even distribution we saw in Week 8 and Jeff Fischer’s unwillingness to commit to Mason as the starter are troubling. I’d expect him to lead the charge in Week 10, but calling for another 20 touch workload is unwise.
As we discussed in the breakdown of Brian Quick’s injury, the Rams really spread the ball around in the pass game this week, rendering all parts ineffective. Still, Kenny Britt played all but four snaps for St. Louis and was the WR to find the endzone. He led the team with four targets, making two catches… and, the four targets are what trouble me. With Britt seeing a season high in snap percentage, he still only had four looks while Jared Cook, Tavon Austin and Benny Cunningham checked in with three. It’s hard to make a living off of four targets a game, but, Britt is the wideout to own here. Stedman Bailey, with whom I had mild interest as a Quick replacement candidate, saw just one target.
Touches and Targets Week 9: San Francisco 49ers
Frank Gore wasn’t overly thrilled with the play calling, even if he went out of his way to back OC Greg Roman, following their Week 10 loss. As a back, he wants the ball… and the 49ers really didn’t run much at all this week. Interestingly, I usually find myself writing about how Carlos Hyde’s workload limited Gore’s upside but with Hyde seeing just two totes that really wasn’t it. San Fran simply got away from the run. Of course, with 49 yards on 14 carries Gore wasn’t doing much with the work, but this is another case of why he is tough to trust as anything but a back-end RB2 on a regular basis. Gore is on pace for just 232 carries.
The box score numbers don’t bear it out, but Michael Crabtree did lead the 49ers in targets this week. His 8/5/40 line was considerably bested by Anquan Boldin mind you, who spent a lot of time in the first half running free of coverage and put together a 7/6/93/TD game. Steve Johnson followed the two with five targets. Otherwise, the ball was spread around throughout the remaining depth, and that includes Vernon Davis. Davis was targeted three times, and has just 26 targets through six games so far. That number keeps Davis in low TE1 territory only, if even there, and needs to be considered as San Francisco has made it clear that they are diversifying their passing attack.
Touches and Targets Week 9: Seattle Seahawks
Marshawn Lynchs’ 26 touches were his highest since Week 3, a game in which he also scored two touchdowns. This week, Lynch didn’t run for a particularly exciting average, but produced a solid 67 yards on 21 carries and added an impressive 76 on five targets, and five receptions. He was central to the offense with Robert Turbin (six touches) and Christine Michael (four carries) chipping in in a support role. Particularly at home, this offense will flow through Lynch the rest of the way.
Doug Baldwin drew one less target than his peer Jermaine Kearse (seven), with both playing more than 80% of the snaps. Kearse, though, had just one catch and hasn’t made much of the opportunity given to him after Percy Harvin’s departure. Baldwin’s 6/5/38 line wasn’t exciting either, but he is the receiver to own. Behind them, interestingly, the Seahawks went three wide a fair bit yielding 61 (of 83) snaps for Paul Richardson who drew five targets and made three receptions. He did nothing with them (12 yards) but the rookie can become an intriguing option if Kearse drops behind him in the rotation somewhere down the line.
Touches and Targets Week 9: New York Giants
Andre Williams started for New York but continued his string of rough outings for New York. He hasn’t had a rushing outing over 4.0 YPC yet. Rashad Jennings remains on the sidelines, though, so Williams will get one more shot at a similar workload (at least). He had 12 carries and a reception against Indianapolis with Peyton Hillis doing the passing down work as New York trailed (4-20, 5/5/50).
You don’t need my numbers to tell you that Odell Beckham Jr. was far more productive than Rueben Randle this week. Each receiver had 11 targets, though, and there should continue to be plenty of volume for both but Beckham was clearly the more impressive of the two on Monday Night. He finished with a gaudy 11/8/156 line while Randle caught just four of the 11 balls thrown his way. Elsewhere, pre-season TD King Corey Washington finally saw game action, logging twelve snaps. This guy was dominant in August, and put together a nice 5/4/48 line with a score against Indianapolis. The WR3 job is wide open in New York and I think he could begin to see solid weekly reps.
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